Ukraine’s Strategy for Winning the Battle of the Black Sea
Ukraine’s Strategy for Winning the Battle of the Black Sea
The MOC
By David Kirichenko
November 2, 2023
In recent months, the Black Sea has witnessed how a small, crafty nation with no navy can meticulously chip away at the fighting power of Russia’s naval capabilities. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, once a dominant presence, has largely withdrawn from occupied Crimea due to a series of audacious Ukrainian offensives. Russia’s ongoing invasion continues to face setback after setback while Ukraine emerges as a Black Sea power and has a strategy in place to defang Russia’s navy.
Satellite imagery from October showcased Russian vessels – including three Kilo-class submarines, two missile frigates, and a patrol ship – hastily departing from their Sevastopol home base in Crimea, heading to Novorossiysk, Russia’s eastern Black Sea port.
Russia was forced into retreat by Ukraine’s proactive deployment of Western-supplied cruise missiles and indigenous naval drones. Ukrainian missile strikes, in tandem with the use of naval drones, have inflicted severe damage on the Russian fleet, sinking flagships, annihilating smaller vessels, and destroying a docked submarine. Speaking about the gravity of the situation, retired U.S. Army Major General Gordon Skip Davis Jr. remarked, “Ukraine’s actions have wrestled control of Ukraine’s western territorial waters back from Russia and prevented the Black Sea Fleet from threatening Odesa with amphibious assault or providing tactical fires and logistical support to Russian forces in Kherson.”
In the past few months, Ukraine began increasing the intensity of its attacks, debilitating Russia’s Crimea-based air defenses and compromising the integrity of its naval fleet. On September 22nd, 2023, the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol experienced a catastrophic bombing. Ukraine’s achievements are especially commendable given its lack of a fully operational navy. Instead, Kyiv has leveraged domestically produced drones, long-range cruise missiles from Western allies, and cunning commando raids in Crimea. A significant success was the sinking of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet flagship, the Moskva, in April 2022, which showed how Ukraine effectively used “proper land-based anti-ship missiles, sea mines and good intelligence.” By June, Ukrainian forces had reclaimedSnake Island, a strategic island near the northwestern Black Sea shipping lanes that Russia had seized at the start of the full-scale invasion.
The Black Sea’s strategic significance extends beyond Ukraine and Russia. It is a crucial channel for grain, mirroring the Persian Gulf’s relevance for oil. The region is vital for the economies of many countries including Turkey, besides Russia and Ukraine, and global agricultural markets, especially. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, grain prices have continued to skyrocket worldwide. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a loss of 30% of farmland used for grain production, causing higher costs and preventing full-scale exports. Prior to Russia’s invasion, Ukraine exported approximately 90 percent of its agricultural products via its Black Sea ports.
In 2022, Russia effectively blockaded Ukraine’s coastline. Russia backed out of the United Nations (“UN”) Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023 (which allowed safe passage for Ukrainian grain exports across the Black Sea), threatened cargo ships bound for Ukrainian ports and transiting from Ukrainian ports, and persistently attacked Ukrainian infrastructure. Yet, Ukraine’s response, embodied by the sinking of the Moskva and continuous assaults on Sevastopol has turned Russia’s once-mighty naval base into a liability.
For Ukraine, the overarching aim remains clear: ensuring uninterrupted cargo shipments through its ports, notably Odesa. Following Russia’s exit from the UN grain deal, Ukraine charted a new shipping route, called the “temporary humanitarian corridor,” skirting its coastline towards the Romanian border near Snake Island. As a result, 51 commercial ships are using the corridor unharmed, despite Russian military threats.
Ukraine has put Russia in a bind. By attacking Russian warships that threaten Ukrainian ports, it has sent Russia into retreat. If, in response, Russia started attacking commercial shipping, pressure on Turkey to allow NATO ships into the Black Sea would increase dramatically.
The wider strategy for Ukraine is not merely about sinking Russian vessels, but rather, escalating the economic implications for Russia. By targeting select ships, insurance rates could skyrocket, rendering Russian ports economically nonviable. A Ukrainian official pointed out, “We don’t have the drones to stop all Russian trade. But if you are asking if we can dramatically increase the financial stakes? Sure, no problem.”
Novorossiysk is one of Russia’s most important commercial ports and is one of Russia’s main naval hubs in the Black Sea. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014, while significant in scale, it primarily functioned as a commercial hub. Naval military infrastructure was surprisingly limited. The port cannot accommodate the entirety of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Moreover, its proximity to Crimea—only about 100km away—renders it especially vulnerable to modern threats like long-range missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles. Ukraine already conducted a successful naval drone attack on Russia’s Black Sea naval base, Novorossiysk, in August 2023.
The significance of Crimea extends beyond its strategic position near Novorossiysk. Its control is paramount for access to the Azov Sea, through which lots of Russian oil is exported. A shift in control over the Black Sea could empower Ukraine to block the Azov Sea for both Russian commercial and military activities, effectively besieging multiple Russian ports and interrupting the operations along Russia’s substantial Rostov-on-Don river. Such control would undoubtedly give Ukraine a heightened strategic leverage and further choke Russia’s economy that is supporting its war.
If Russia continues to fail to secure its fleet, it may opt for a temporary – but highly reliable -solution of relocating some of the Black Sea Fleet ships to the Caspian Sea through internal waters. Russia has primarily competed with Turkey for leadership in the Black Sea. But, now it is competing for survival — without Ukraine even having a naval fleet. In a clear indication of Russia’s ongoing pullback, Russia has secured an agreement for a permanent naval base along the Black Sea shoreline of Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia. This comes as Russia relocates most of its Black Sea Fleet from its primary base in occupied Crimea after a series of devastating attacks from Ukraine. Ochamchira, a new naval base in Abkhazia, is nearly 700 kilometers away, making it harder for Ukraine to conduct strikes with unmanned surface and aerial systems. However, the Ukrainian government has displayed a remarkable reach and capability, extending its reach to even striking Moscow. Ukraine has also managed to bomb an airbase over 600 kilometers from its borders and various other strategic military assets across Russia.
Restoring Ukrainian sovereignty over Crimea would not only strengthen Ukraine’s southern coastal defenses but also rejuvenate its economic prospects through the revitalization of its ports. Importantly, it would curtail Russia’s disproportionate influence over the Black Sea region. However, 2022’s developments illuminated Moscow’s broader ambitions. Crimea was merely a steppingstone. For Ukraine, the stakes are existential. Retaining the status quo, with Crimea under Russian control, would amount to Russia holding a dagger at Ukraine’s throat, wielded at the Kremlin’s discretion. It is not a matter of mere choice for Ukraine. It is a matter of national survival. Andrii Ryzhenko, a former Ukrainian navy captain, believes the efforts to render Crimea unholdable for Russia will continue into the winter. Ryzhenko believes that Ukraine will keep looking to identify Russia’s vulnerabilities and consistently weaken their defenses and logistics.
Ukraine will continue its attack to wipe out Russian naval assets in Crimea, and then continue to chase them further away, in the Black Sea. Ukraine’s aims will be to secure safe passage for grain ships exporting from its ports, prepare to take back Crimea, and to ensure Russia is no longer attacking Ukraine from the Black Sea. At the center of war in the Black Sea will continue to be naval drones and Western supplied missiles. Crimea remains the grand prize in Ukraine’s fight to defeat Russia and win the battle of the Black Sea.
David Kirichenko is a freelance journalist and an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank. He can be found on X @DVKirichenko.
By David Kirichenko
In recent months, the Black Sea has witnessed how a small, crafty nation with no navy can meticulously chip away at the fighting power of Russia’s naval capabilities. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, once a dominant presence, has largely withdrawn from occupied Crimea due to a series of audacious Ukrainian offensives. Russia’s ongoing invasion continues to face setback after setback while Ukraine emerges as a Black Sea power and has a strategy in place to defang Russia’s navy.
Satellite imagery from October showcased Russian vessels – including three Kilo-class submarines, two missile frigates, and a patrol ship – hastily departing from their Sevastopol home base in Crimea, heading to Novorossiysk, Russia’s eastern Black Sea port.
Russia was forced into retreat by Ukraine’s proactive deployment of Western-supplied cruise missiles and indigenous naval drones. Ukrainian missile strikes, in tandem with the use of naval drones, have inflicted severe damage on the Russian fleet, sinking flagships, annihilating smaller vessels, and destroying a docked submarine. Speaking about the gravity of the situation, retired U.S. Army Major General Gordon Skip Davis Jr. remarked, “Ukraine’s actions have wrestled control of Ukraine’s western territorial waters back from Russia and prevented the Black Sea Fleet from threatening Odesa with amphibious assault or providing tactical fires and logistical support to Russian forces in Kherson.”
In the past few months, Ukraine began increasing the intensity of its attacks, debilitating Russia’s Crimea-based air defenses and compromising the integrity of its naval fleet. On September 22nd, 2023, the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol experienced a catastrophic bombing. Ukraine’s achievements are especially commendable given its lack of a fully operational navy. Instead, Kyiv has leveraged domestically produced drones, long-range cruise missiles from Western allies, and cunning commando raids in Crimea. A significant success was the sinking of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet flagship, the Moskva, in April 2022, which showed how Ukraine effectively used “proper land-based anti-ship missiles, sea mines and good intelligence.” By June, Ukrainian forces had reclaimed Snake Island, a strategic island near the northwestern Black Sea shipping lanes that Russia had seized at the start of the full-scale invasion.
The Black Sea’s strategic significance extends beyond Ukraine and Russia. It is a crucial channel for grain, mirroring the Persian Gulf’s relevance for oil. The region is vital for the economies of many countries including Turkey, besides Russia and Ukraine, and global agricultural markets, especially. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, grain prices have continued to skyrocket worldwide. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a loss of 30% of farmland used for grain production, causing higher costs and preventing full-scale exports. Prior to Russia’s invasion, Ukraine exported approximately 90 percent of its agricultural products via its Black Sea ports.
In 2022, Russia effectively blockaded Ukraine’s coastline. Russia backed out of the United Nations (“UN”) Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023 (which allowed safe passage for Ukrainian grain exports across the Black Sea), threatened cargo ships bound for Ukrainian ports and transiting from Ukrainian ports, and persistently attacked Ukrainian infrastructure. Yet, Ukraine’s response, embodied by the sinking of the Moskva and continuous assaults on Sevastopol has turned Russia’s once-mighty naval base into a liability.
For Ukraine, the overarching aim remains clear: ensuring uninterrupted cargo shipments through its ports, notably Odesa. Following Russia’s exit from the UN grain deal, Ukraine charted a new shipping route, called the “temporary humanitarian corridor,” skirting its coastline towards the Romanian border near Snake Island. As a result, 51 commercial ships are using the corridor unharmed, despite Russian military threats.
Ukraine has put Russia in a bind. By attacking Russian warships that threaten Ukrainian ports, it has sent Russia into retreat. If, in response, Russia started attacking commercial shipping, pressure on Turkey to allow NATO ships into the Black Sea would increase dramatically.
The wider strategy for Ukraine is not merely about sinking Russian vessels, but rather, escalating the economic implications for Russia. By targeting select ships, insurance rates could skyrocket, rendering Russian ports economically nonviable. A Ukrainian official pointed out, “We don’t have the drones to stop all Russian trade. But if you are asking if we can dramatically increase the financial stakes? Sure, no problem.”
Novorossiysk is one of Russia’s most important commercial ports and is one of Russia’s main naval hubs in the Black Sea. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014, while significant in scale, it primarily functioned as a commercial hub. Naval military infrastructure was surprisingly limited. The port cannot accommodate the entirety of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Moreover, its proximity to Crimea—only about 100km away—renders it especially vulnerable to modern threats like long-range missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles. Ukraine already conducted a successful naval drone attack on Russia’s Black Sea naval base, Novorossiysk, in August 2023.
The significance of Crimea extends beyond its strategic position near Novorossiysk. Its control is paramount for access to the Azov Sea, through which lots of Russian oil is exported. A shift in control over the Black Sea could empower Ukraine to block the Azov Sea for both Russian commercial and military activities, effectively besieging multiple Russian ports and interrupting the operations along Russia’s substantial Rostov-on-Don river. Such control would undoubtedly give Ukraine a heightened strategic leverage and further choke Russia’s economy that is supporting its war.
If Russia continues to fail to secure its fleet, it may opt for a temporary – but highly reliable -solution of relocating some of the Black Sea Fleet ships to the Caspian Sea through internal waters. Russia has primarily competed with Turkey for leadership in the Black Sea. But, now it is competing for survival — without Ukraine even having a naval fleet. In a clear indication of Russia’s ongoing pullback, Russia has secured an agreement for a permanent naval base along the Black Sea shoreline of Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia. This comes as Russia relocates most of its Black Sea Fleet from its primary base in occupied Crimea after a series of devastating attacks from Ukraine. Ochamchira, a new naval base in Abkhazia, is nearly 700 kilometers away, making it harder for Ukraine to conduct strikes with unmanned surface and aerial systems. However, the Ukrainian government has displayed a remarkable reach and capability, extending its reach to even striking Moscow. Ukraine has also managed to bomb an airbase over 600 kilometers from its borders and various other strategic military assets across Russia.
Restoring Ukrainian sovereignty over Crimea would not only strengthen Ukraine’s southern coastal defenses but also rejuvenate its economic prospects through the revitalization of its ports. Importantly, it would curtail Russia’s disproportionate influence over the Black Sea region. However, 2022’s developments illuminated Moscow’s broader ambitions. Crimea was merely a steppingstone. For Ukraine, the stakes are existential. Retaining the status quo, with Crimea under Russian control, would amount to Russia holding a dagger at Ukraine’s throat, wielded at the Kremlin’s discretion. It is not a matter of mere choice for Ukraine. It is a matter of national survival. Andrii Ryzhenko, a former Ukrainian navy captain, believes the efforts to render Crimea unholdable for Russia will continue into the winter. Ryzhenko believes that Ukraine will keep looking to identify Russia’s vulnerabilities and consistently weaken their defenses and logistics.
Ukraine will continue its attack to wipe out Russian naval assets in Crimea, and then continue to chase them further away, in the Black Sea. Ukraine’s aims will be to secure safe passage for grain ships exporting from its ports, prepare to take back Crimea, and to ensure Russia is no longer attacking Ukraine from the Black Sea. At the center of war in the Black Sea will continue to be naval drones and Western supplied missiles. Crimea remains the grand prize in Ukraine’s fight to defeat Russia and win the battle of the Black Sea.
David Kirichenko is a freelance journalist and an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank. He can be found on X @DVKirichenko.